the ronald opus story. (incidentally untrue) | Rough model
(read about it on fb, or on wiki, or whereever.)
assumptions: no two factors have a correlation. if they do, then the prob. drops even further. i'll update this model someday, maybe, if i'm bored enough again.
suicide rate in america: 19.0(male), 11.8(total) /per lakh people
fictional story, assuming him to be middle aged, the sex ratio is 1.00(15-64), and 0.75(65+)
therefore, the probability that he commits suicide is 19.0/(2*10000)
now, the number of people on an average (civilians) who own a firearm in the states is app. 34%
the probability that a family member has access to this firearm is proportional to the trust they place in each other, from divorce rates, estrangement and breach-of-promise suits, and other such cases, an estimate of this would be roughly 79%
23,237 accidental shootings in 2000 (since no other data is available, i assume its remained roughly constant since then), where the population then was 281,421,906. => 0.00008257
last two things:
spatial coincidence(rough)
area of an average flat is between 900-1000 sq.ft
Wall height is between 9.5-11.5 ft.
hence, considering that the bullet could be fired in any direction (the bias towards the direction of the wife is ignored), the probability that it will choose a spot where the trajectory would take it in the direction of opus is (considering his area as around 1sq.ft -> fatal only)
total surface area => 30ft*10ft*4+900sq.ft
prob => 1sq.ft/tot.area = 1/2100 = 0.00047619
the last thing i could think of (i might be forgetting factors that could possibly reduce the probability even further, but i'm being unduly optimistic here.), is the time factor.
temporal coincidence(rough)
it was two weeks since the attempted motherkilling setup -> average manifestation time of depression is three days, so thats 11 days that he's been contemplating suicide. that's 11*24*3600 seconds
assume the father goes into a psychotic gun-threatening rage every two-three days for a span of about 15 mins, then the amount of time pointing the gun around is about 15*60*7 seconds
thus, the probability that the events will temporally coincide is
prob => 15*60*(7 to 4.667)/11*24*3600 = 0.006628788 to 0.004419508
from these, the probability that this incident would occur is approximately between, (considering that the time and place were exactly as is, for all time and space. read multiverse theories for more.)
0.210694*10^-7 to 0.261704*10^-7
factoring in spatial and temporal conincidence factors, the probability further drops to about,
P = [Plower,Pupper] == [0.47827E-14,0.82619E-13].
please do point out flaws/improvements if you can think of any.
References:
"U.S.A. Suicide: 2006 Official Final Data". American Association of Suicidology.
Lott, John, John E. Whitley (2001). "Safe-Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime". Journal of Law and Economics
"03: Housing space standards: a national perspective" Mike Roys, RIBA '08
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Opus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio
http://www.americanfirearms.org/statistics.php
http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/by-type/yearbook/small-arms-survey-2007.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/04/17/us-usa-crime-shootings-guns-idUSN1743414020070417
http://www.snopes.com/horrors/freakish/opus.asp
ps. i've an exam t'moro. i should probably go study now.
(read about it on fb, or on wiki, or whereever.)
assumptions: no two factors have a correlation. if they do, then the prob. drops even further. i'll update this model someday, maybe, if i'm bored enough again.
suicide rate in america: 19.0(male), 11.8(total) /per lakh people
fictional story, assuming him to be middle aged, the sex ratio is 1.00(15-64), and 0.75(65+)
therefore, the probability that he commits suicide is 19.0/(2*10000)
now, the number of people on an average (civilians) who own a firearm in the states is app. 34%
the probability that a family member has access to this firearm is proportional to the trust they place in each other, from divorce rates, estrangement and breach-of-promise suits, and other such cases, an estimate of this would be roughly 79%
23,237 accidental shootings in 2000 (since no other data is available, i assume its remained roughly constant since then), where the population then was 281,421,906. => 0.00008257
last two things:
spatial coincidence(rough)
area of an average flat is between 900-1000 sq.ft
Wall height is between 9.5-11.5 ft.
hence, considering that the bullet could be fired in any direction (the bias towards the direction of the wife is ignored), the probability that it will choose a spot where the trajectory would take it in the direction of opus is (considering his area as around 1sq.ft -> fatal only)
total surface area => 30ft*10ft*4+900sq.ft
prob => 1sq.ft/tot.area = 1/2100 = 0.00047619
the last thing i could think of (i might be forgetting factors that could possibly reduce the probability even further, but i'm being unduly optimistic here.), is the time factor.
temporal coincidence(rough)
it was two weeks since the attempted motherkilling setup -> average manifestation time of depression is three days, so thats 11 days that he's been contemplating suicide. that's 11*24*3600 seconds
assume the father goes into a psychotic gun-threatening rage every two-three days for a span of about 15 mins, then the amount of time pointing the gun around is about 15*60*7 seconds
thus, the probability that the events will temporally coincide is
prob => 15*60*(7 to 4.667)/11*24*3600 = 0.006628788 to 0.004419508
from these, the probability that this incident would occur is approximately between, (considering that the time and place were exactly as is, for all time and space. read multiverse theories for more.)
0.210694*10^-7 to 0.261704*10^-7
factoring in spatial and temporal conincidence factors, the probability further drops to about,
P = [Plower,Pupper] == [0.47827E-14,0.82619E-13].
please do point out flaws/improvements if you can think of any.
References:
"U.S.A. Suicide: 2006 Official Final Data". American Association of Suicidology.
Lott, John, John E. Whitley (2001). "Safe-Storage Gun Laws: Accidental Deaths, Suicides, and Crime". Journal of Law and Economics
"03: Housing space standards: a national perspective" Mike Roys, RIBA '08
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Opus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio
http://www.americanfirearms.org/statistics.php
http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/by-type/yearbook/small-arms-survey-2007.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/04/17/us-usa-crime-shootings-guns-idUSN1743414020070417
http://www.snopes.com/horrors/freakish/opus.asp
ps. i've an exam t'moro. i should probably go study now.
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